mind & bodyanalysisOur World in Data
Most people in many countries think immigrants make up a bigger share of the population than they really do
Surveys across many countries repeatedly find that people guess the share of immigrants in their own country is much higher than the official figure. The gap is consistent enough that researchers have a name for it: misperception of immigrant numbers. Part of the cause is availability: people notice visible newcomers in cities, on the news and in debates, and that presence gets mentally multiplied into a population share. Guesses also tend to be shaped by how much a country's immigration is discussed, so the perceived number often reflects attention rather than headcounts. When people are shown accurate figures, their estimates usually move closer to reality, though the underlying attitudes do not always change with them.
Public debate about immigration often starts from a shared assumption about scale, so an inflated guess can shape policy preferences before anyone has checked the data. Knowing the gap exists helps readers treat their gut sense of how many immigrants live nearby as a hypothesis to test rather than a fact.
