odditiesWikipedia1959

Given that one of two children is a boy, the chance both are boys is one third

the gist

Suppose a family has two children and you know at least one is a boy. Intuition says the chance both are boys is one half, but it is one third. Among two-child families there are four equally likely combinations: boy-boy, boy-girl, girl-boy and girl-girl. Learning that at least one is a boy rules out only girl-girl, leaving three cases, and just one of them is boy-boy. The answer changes with how the information was obtained: if you learned that a specific child, such as the older one, is a boy, the chance the other is also a boy becomes one half. Martin Gardner popularised the puzzle in Scientific American in 1959, and it became a classic demonstration that wording and procedure shape probability.

how it works

Counting the equally likely families shows the answer. Learning that at least one child is a boy eliminates the girl-girl family, leaving boy-boy, boy-girl and girl-boy. Only one of those three has two boys. If instead you learn about a particular child, that child's sex is fixed and the other child's sex stays at one half.

so what

It shows that probability depends on the procedure that produced the information, not only on the words, which matters in statistics, medicine and everyday reasoning.

fun fact

Martin Gardner first posed the puzzle in his Mathematical Games column in Scientific American in May 1959.

more on this

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Illustrative photo · Cmglee, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons