8:08supplementary video · United Nations on YouTube ↗
nature & planetThe Conversation
Disappearing lakes and AI are helping scientists map Arctic permafrost thaw in near-real time
Permafrost is ground that stays below freezing for at least two years, and when the ice inside it melts, the surface can collapse. Thaw creates thermokarst ponds, and when these ponds suddenly drain, it signals that ice-rich permafrost has melted below. Researchers have mapped more than four million Arctic lakes, using aerial photos from the late 1940s and satellite images from the 1970s onward. They use artificial intelligence to scan new images for ponds that appear or disappear. The Seward and Baldwin peninsulas in northwestern Alaska are hot spots, where many large lakes have drained since the 2000s. Around 30 lakes drained in June and July 2026 alone. The team's near-real-time map helps communities identify ground unsuitable for building.
Permafrost thaw damages roads, buildings and pipelines, and information was often published years after the fact. Near-real-time maps let planners choose safer building sites before problems start.
