mind & bodyWikipedia1999

The Dunning-Kruger effect: why the least skilled often overrate themselves most

the gist

The Dunning-Kruger effect is the tendency for people with low ability in a specific area to overestimate their skill. Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger formalised and tested it in 1999, using tasks such as logical reasoning and grammar and comparing people's self-assessments with their actual scores. The explanation is that poor performers lack the skill needed to recognise good work, so they cannot see how far short they fall. The effect also works in reverse, as high performers often underestimate themselves, and the pattern has been found in fields from medicine to driving.

so what

The effect explains why confident beginners can be so sure of themselves. It also shows that self-assessment is unreliable exactly where we most need it. Critics argue that part of the pattern is a statistical artifact, so its size is still debated.

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