We tend to assume big events have big causes, a bias that helps fuel conspiracy theories

the gist

Proportionality bias is the tendency to assume that big events must have big causes. When something major happens, people often expect an equally large and deliberate explanation, even when the real cause was small or random. Psychologist Rob Brotherton summarises it as 'When something big happens, we tend to assume that something big must have caused it.' This intuition makes it hard to accept that a single person or a chance accident could cause a huge event, and it helps make conspiracy theories appealing.

how it works

Our intuitions match cause and effect in proportion: a small cause seems too small to produce a massive result, so the mind searches for something bigger. Stories with powerful, coordinated causes feel more satisfying than random or minor ones, which makes them easier to believe even without evidence.

so what

The bias explains why people struggle with randomness and small causes, and why explanations of major events are often pulled toward conspiracy. Recognizing it is a useful check when a dramatic event seems to demand a dramatic explanation.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · text CC BY-SA 4.0

Illustrative photo · Oleksii.matiiasevych, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

source: Wikipedia ↗

historyWikipediaclassic1336–1565 · Karnataka, India

Hampi was once one of the world's largest cities, until its Vijayanagara capital was destroyed in 1565

the gist

Hampi is a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Karnataka, India, with more than 1,600 surviving remains spread over 4,100 hectares. It was the capital of the Vijayanagara Empire from 1336 to 1565. Travellers from Persia and Portugal described it as a prosperous, wealthy and grand city with temples, markets and farms along the Tungabhadra River. By 1500 it was estimated to be the world's second-largest city after Beijing, and probably India's richest at the time. In 1565 a coalition of Muslim sultanates defeated the Vijayanagara Empire, its capital was conquered and destroyed, and the city was left in ruins. Hampi remains a religious centre, with the active Virupaksha Temple at its heart.

how it works

The city was built around a fortified core with temples, markets and water structures along the river, supplied by an extensive network of roads and waterworks. When the empire fell, the city was not rebuilt, so its stone monuments were left standing.

so what

Hampi shows how quickly a great city can vanish after a military defeat, and how a ruined capital can remain sacred. Its ruins give historians a view of medieval South Asia that few other sites can match.

fun fact

The name Hampi comes from Pampa, an old name for the Tungabhadra River.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · text CC BY-SA 4.0

Image: Wikimedia Commons

source: Wikipedia ↗

2 min

politicsshortCNA2:01

False allegations about Singapore’s hand in Indonesia’s markets and a made-up meeting

from CNA

CNA Verify has found close to 400 posts pushing falsehoods tying Singapore to Indonesia’s stock market rout and to a secret meeting that never took place. Together, they drew nearly 12 million views, and some were circulated by accounts that appeared to be working in concert, across multiple social media platforms.

Here’s how the disinformation campaign targeting Singapore was uncovered.

on YouTube: CNA ↗