nature & planetEos

Many Regions Have Warmed Beyond 1.5°C and Some Beyond 2°C, New Study Finds

the gist

A new study in Nature Climate Change finds that many regions have already warmed beyond 1.5°C, with some beyond 2°C, even though the global average is about 1.44°C above preindustrial levels. It is the first regional analysis to fill data gaps in places with poor historical records. Scientists think the world has probably already entered the 20-year period in which the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit will be breached, and a UN report in September said there is virtually no chance of staying below it. The Arctic is warming fastest, with consequences such as shrinking caribou herds.

so what

A global average hides big differences: the places people live can be far hotter than the headline number. The Paris limit is measured over decades, so crossing it will be clear only in hindsight.

fun fact

The 1.5°C goal was added to the Paris Agreement largely at the urging of small island states.

Eos (AGU) · CC BY-NC-ND 3.0

Illustrative photo · Uwappa, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons