nature & planetEos
Many Regions Have Warmed Beyond 1.5°C and Some Beyond 2°C, New Study Finds
A new study in Nature Climate Change finds that many regions have already warmed beyond 1.5°C, with some beyond 2°C, even though the global average is about 1.44°C above preindustrial levels. It is the first regional analysis to fill data gaps in places with poor historical records. Scientists think the world has probably already entered the 20-year period in which the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit will be breached, and a UN report in September said there is virtually no chance of staying below it. The Arctic is warming fastest, with consequences such as shrinking caribou herds.
A global average hides big differences: the places people live can be far hotter than the headline number. The Paris limit is measured over decades, so crossing it will be clear only in hindsight.
The 1.5°C goal was added to the Paris Agreement largely at the urging of small island states.
