historyanalysisNLM Circulating Now1918 · Chicago, USA

Revealing Data: Dr. James Herrick and the 1918 Influenza Epidemic

the gist

In 1918 Chicago's Presbyterian Hospital ran an influenza ward led by the physician James Herrick, who wrote about the epidemic in 1919. He argued that public health measures such as isolating the sick and banning gatherings would spread infections over a longer time, so fewer people would die at once, which is the logic later called flattening the curve. The hospital admitted 9,852 patients in 1918 and recorded 293 deaths, about 3 percent. Herrick used no vaccine or serum, relying on rest, fresh air, light food, and digitalis for heart failure, and he warned doctors against overdrugging.

how it works

Spreading contacts out over time reduces how many people are infectious at once, so hospitals are less overwhelmed. Isolation and limits on gatherings cut the number of exposures per person. Lower peaks mean fewer deaths when medical care is stretched.

so what

It also shows physicians arguing over treatments without proven cures, a problem familiar from recent pandemics.

U.S. National Library of Medicine

Illustrative photo · Encik Tekateki, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons