science & techanalysisOur World in Data

Each doubling of solar capacity has cut panel prices by about a fifth

the gist

Solar panel prices have dropped roughly 20 percent each time the world's total installed solar capacity doubles. This pattern, called a learning curve, appears because manufacturers get better at production with every unit made. Over the last decade, solar photovoltaic costs have fallen about 90 percent, onshore wind about 70 percent, and batteries more than 90 percent. Cheap clean power now often beats new fossil fuel plants on cost alone.

how it works

Each time a factory makes more panels, workers and engineers find better designs, cheaper materials and faster processes. Because cost falls with cumulative output rather than with time, doubling total production gives a predictable drop in price. That is why experience curves show up across many manufactured products.

so what

The learning curve means clean energy keeps getting cheaper as it spreads, which changes forecasts for how fast the world can switch away from coal and gas. It is one of the strongest examples of how scale drives down the cost of new technology.

the bigger pattern

The same learning-curve effect made computer chips, LED lights and lithium-ion batteries much cheaper as their production grew. Economists have used it since the 1930s to explain falling costs in aircraft manufacturing.

more on this

background

In industry, models of the learning or experience curve effect express the relationship between experience producing a good and the efficiency of that production, specifically, efficiency gains that follow investment in the effort. The effect has large implications for costs and market share, which can increase competitive advantage over time.

From Wikipedia: Experience curve effect (CC BY-SA 4.0) ↗

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