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nature & planetanalysisThe Conversation (UK)

The worse climate change gets, the harder it becomes to stop it

the gist

The UN now accepts that global warming will exceed 1.5°C, and climate scientists conclude that the rate of warming has roughly doubled in the past decade. The concern is that the climate may be nearing tipping points: thresholds past which a change feeds itself. In 2018 a team led by Earth system scientist Will Steffen warned that continued emissions and biodiversity loss could set off a cascade of feedbacks leading to Hothouse Earth, a state much warmer than today that humans could not reverse by cutting emissions. Examples of feedbacks include melting ice exposing darker surfaces that absorb more heat, and warming that dries forests and releases stored carbon. The harder warming gets, the more these loops push, so each increment is harder to undo.

how it works

A feedback is a process that amplifies or dampens warming. Melting sea ice replaces reflective white with dark water, which absorbs more sunlight. Thawing permafrost and drying forests release carbon that adds to warming. Once enough such loops are triggered, they can keep driving heating without more human emissions.

so what

It means that early cuts count more than late ones, because warming can set off processes that continue after emissions fall. Tipping points are uncertain in timing, but the risk rises with each fraction of a degree.

fun fact

The Hothouse Earth idea was published in 2018 in the journal PNAS.