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We overrate new technology in the short run and underrate it in the long run
Amara's law says that people tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. The idea is named after Roy Amara, an American futurist and president of the Institute for the Future, who coined it. Early hype promises dramatic change within a few years, which rarely arrives on schedule and leads to disappointment. Meanwhile the slower, quieter changes that accumulate over decades, reshaping habits, industries and infrastructure, are easy to miss. Amara held degrees in management, the arts and sciences and systems engineering, and worked at the Stanford Research Institute.
Short-term expectations are shaped by demos and headlines, which exaggerate immediate impact. Long-term effects depend on adoption, complementary infrastructure and changing habits, which build slowly and are hard to predict.
The law is a practical check on hype cycles, whether about the internet, electric cars or AI: sudden promises tend to fade while long-run effects surprise people.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · text CC BY-SA 4.0
Illustrative photo · Rochester Institute of Technology, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
