nature & planetThe Conversation2001–2024 · Western United States
How heat waves increase wildfire risk
A new study of Western US wildfires from 2001 to 2024 finds that heat waves, defined as at least three consecutive days in the hottest tenth of days, covered only 12 to 15 percent of warm-season days yet accounted for 42 percent of all burned area. Heat dries out vegetation and raises the air's demand for moisture, so fuels ignite more easily. Heat waves also limit night-time humidity, which lets fires keep burning through the night, and the hot, unstable air can produce dry lightning that starts fires without rain. Burned area each day was often more than 50 percent larger during heat waves than in the days just before them. Since 2001 heat wave days across Western forests have nearly doubled, and the researchers estimate forest burned area would have been 37 percent smaller without that increase. The effect was strong in forests but not in grasslands, where fuel availability matters more than heat.
Wildfire forecasts have usually left out heat waves, so this research suggests a major driver of fire risk has been underweighted. It links climate change directly to larger forest fires in the West.
Illustrative photo · U.S. Forest Service- Pacific Northwest Region, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
