mind & bodyWikipedia
A 1913 roulette streak at Monte Carlo inspired the gambler's fallacy about past results
The gambler's fallacy is the belief that an outcome which has happened less often than expected is more likely to happen next. A die that has not shown a 4 recently is not 'due' a 4. Each roll is independent, so the chance stays at one in six. The fallacy is named after a famous run at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, when a roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row, and gamblers bet heavily on red. It also goes by the Monte Carlo fallacy. It comes from a misreading of the law of large numbers, which describes long-run averages rather than short-run corrections.
The same reasoning shapes decisions in sport, finance and everyday choices, where people expect streaks to reverse. Understanding that independent events have no memory is one of the most practical habits in probability.
The roulette wheel at Monte Carlo landed on black 26 times in succession in 1913.
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