world cultures & travelOur World in Data
India overtook China as the world's most populous country in 2023
In 2023 India overtook China as the most populous country on Earth, according to UN World Population Prospects estimates. Both countries had around 1.4 billion people that year, roughly the same as the entire population of Africa. China's population has been shrinking in recent years after decades of strict family planning and a low birth rate, while India's population is still growing, though its birth rate has also been falling. The shift marks the end of a long period in which China held the top spot. Because population momentum carries forward, India is expected to remain the largest country for decades.
Population size shapes economic weight, labour markets and political influence, so a change at the top of the rankings matters well beyond demographics. It also signals that the world's centre of population is shifting toward South Asia.
