A catchy idea repeated enough can snowball into accepted truth, an availability cascade

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A catchy idea repeated enough can snowball into accepted truth, an availability cascade

the gist

An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing process in which a belief gains credibility simply by being repeated in public. A simple, striking explanation spreads quickly, and each new person adopts it because others already have. Many people repeat it to appear up to date, even without fully believing it, and that social pressure can overwhelm careful thinking. Timur Kuran and Cass Sunstein developed the idea as an extension of information cascades, adding reputational pressure to the availability heuristic, which is our tendency to judge what is likely by what comes easily to mind. The concept has been especially influential in finance and in the regulation of risk.

how it works

Each person's adoption of an idea makes it look more plausible to the next person, creating a chain reaction. Reputation matters too: repeating the idea signals that you are informed and in step with others, which can override personal doubt.

so what

The cascade explains how moods, scares and fashionable ideas can take over public debate without fresh evidence. It helps account for why some risks get huge attention while others are ignored. Recognising the pattern is a useful check on what feels obviously true because everyone is saying it.

Hampi was once one of the world's largest cities, until its Vijayanagara capital was destroyed in 1565

the gist

Hampi is a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Karnataka, India, with more than 1,600 surviving remains spread over 4,100 hectares. It was the capital of the Vijayanagara Empire from 1336 to 1565. Travellers from Persia and Portugal described it as a prosperous, wealthy and grand city with temples, markets and farms along the Tungabhadra River. By 1500 it was estimated to be the world's second-largest city after Beijing, and probably India's richest at the time. In 1565 a coalition of Muslim sultanates defeated the Vijayanagara Empire, its capital was conquered and destroyed, and the city was left in ruins. Hampi remains a religious centre, with the active Virupaksha Temple at its heart.

how it works

The city was built around a fortified core with temples, markets and water structures along the river, supplied by an extensive network of roads and waterworks. When the empire fell, the city was not rebuilt, so its stone monuments were left standing.

so what

Hampi shows how quickly a great city can vanish after a military defeat, and how a ruined capital can remain sacred. Its ruins give historians a view of medieval South Asia that few other sites can match.

fun fact

The name Hampi comes from Pampa, an old name for the Tungabhadra River.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · text CC BY-SA 4.0

Image: Wikimedia Commons

source: Wikipedia ↗

2 min

politicsshortCNA2:01

False allegations about Singapore’s hand in Indonesia’s markets and a made-up meeting

from CNA

CNA Verify has found close to 400 posts pushing falsehoods tying Singapore to Indonesia’s stock market rout and to a secret meeting that never took place. Together, they drew nearly 12 million views, and some were circulated by accounts that appeared to be working in concert, across multiple social media platforms.

Here’s how the disinformation campaign targeting Singapore was uncovered.

on YouTube: CNA ↗