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China's fertility rate has fallen to about one child per woman, and the decline began before the one-child policy
China's total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime, has fallen to about one, far below the roughly 2.1 needed to keep a population stable without migration. The decline started before the one-child policy: as incomes rose, schooling spread and women entered work, families had fewer children, and the rate was already falling steeply in the 1970s. The policy, designed in 1979 and rolled out nationally from 1980, limited most couples to one child and accelerated a trend already underway. After limits were relaxed to two children in 2016 and three in 2021, births did not recover much, suggesting that housing costs, school pressure and changing expectations weigh heavily on families.
Because China is the world's most populous country, its fertility trend shapes labour forces, pensions and economic growth worldwide for decades. The case shows that policy and development both matter, and that reversing a low birth rate is hard even when the rules change.
background
The one-child policy (Chinese: 一孩政策 / 独生子女政策; pinyin: yī hái zhèngcè / dú shēng zǐ nǚ zhèng cè) was a controversial population planning initiative in Mainland China implemented between 1979 and 2015 to curb the country's population growth by restricting many families to a single child. The program had wide-ranging social, cultural, economic, and demographic effects, although the contribution of one-child restrictions to the broader program has been the subject of controversy. Its efficacy in reducing birth rates and defensibility from a human rights perspective have been subjects of controversy.
From Wikipedia: One-child policy (CC BY-SA 4.0) ↗see
key facts
- Country
- People's Republic of China
- Started
- 1979
- Ended
- 31 December 2015
Facts: Wikidata (CC0)

