science & techWikipedia1980s onward

Developing a new drug has grown slower and costlier for decades, despite better technology

the gist

Eroom's law describes the puzzling trend that drug discovery keeps getting slower and more expensive even as the tools improve. Techniques such as high-throughput screening, biotechnology and computer-aided drug design have all arrived, yet the inflation-adjusted cost of bringing a new drug to market roughly doubles about every nine years. The pattern was first noticed in the 1980s. The name is Moore's law spelled backwards, a deliberate contrast with the way computing power, as in transistor counts, grows exponentially. The term was coined by Jack Scannell and colleagues in a 2012 paper in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. Researchers still debate the causes, which include tougher safety standards, easy targets already being used up, and more complex regulation.

how it works

Early drugs targeted the most obvious biological mechanisms, and those are now largely explored. New candidates must be tested more rigorously for safety and effectiveness, which takes many years and large trials. Each failed candidate adds cost to the successful ones, so the overall price of a new drug rises.

so what

Medicines are expensive partly because each new drug needs more money to develop, and that cost is passed on to patients and health systems. The law makes clear that faster tools do not automatically mean faster progress in medicine.

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Illustrative photo · Kernsters, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons