nature & planetanalysisThe Conversation (Australia)
The world will soon shoot past 1.5°C. What does this mean?
Global warming will pass the 1.5°C limit within the next three to four years, and this is now considered unavoidable. A recent UN report found that current climate and energy policies put the world on track for about 2.6°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The 1.5°C goal was not the original aim: for years negotiators aimed for 2°C, and 1.5°C only entered the Paris Agreement in 2015 after small island nations and a group called the High Ambition Coalition pushed for it, backed by the EU and the US. A special scientific report afterwards showed the risks at 1.5°C are markedly lower than at 2°C. The focus now is on keeping 1.5°C within reach: overshooting temporarily, then bringing temperatures back down with deep emissions cuts and carbon removal.
Passing 1.5°C does not mean the Paris goal is meaningless; every extra tenth of a degree adds more fires, extreme weather and sea-level rise. The COP31 summit in Antalya, Turkey, is where governments argue over how to limit the overshoot.
The 1.5°C target came largely from small island states, which argued that 2°C of warming would threaten their survival.
The Conversation
Illustrative photo · Uwappa, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
