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The Collingridge dilemma: new technology is easiest to control before we know its effects
The Collingridge dilemma describes a bind in controlling technology. Early on, when a technology could be shaped easily, its impacts cannot be predicted, because they only become clear once it is widely used. Later, when the effects are obvious, the technology is so entrenched in economies and habits that it is hard to regulate. David Collingridge set out this double bind in his 1980 book The Social Control of Technology, at the University of Aston. It is now a basic reference point in debates about technology assessment and governance.
Impacts of a technology depend on how people use it, which only emerges at scale. Early regulation must act on imperfect knowledge, while late regulation faces powerful incentives and established systems. The two problems pull in opposite directions.
The dilemma explains why regulation of new technologies so often arrives too late or too early. It pushes policymakers to build in ways to monitor, test and adjust technologies while they are still changeable.
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