nature & planetanalysisThe Conversation
How heat on the Tibetan Plateau fuels powerful storms in California, half a world away
Unusually warm land on the Tibetan Plateau in early winter can help bring heavy rain and snow to California months later. The plateau's height and size heat the air above it, changing temperature contrasts and disturbing the jet stream. That disturbance travels east as a large atmospheric wave, the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain wave train, which becomes unstable over the Pacific and strengthens atmospheric rivers, long corridors of water vapor that hit the West Coast. In climate model experiments, only runs that started from observed plateau temperatures reproduced the extreme California precipitation, suggesting the link is causal.
Heated land warms the air above it and changes pressure and temperature gradients. Those changes send a wave along the jet stream eastward. When the wave breaks over the Pacific it reshapes the atmosphere, strengthening the narrow streams of moisture that become atmospheric rivers.
Ocean patterns like El Niño and La Niña have long dominated seasonal forecasts, and they missed the record California storms of 2016–2017 and 2022–2023. Land conditions thousands of miles away may give forecasters an earlier signal.
Illustrative photo · NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
