odditiesWikipedia1963–1964 · USA

The Lincoln and Kennedy coincidence list was debunked by chance and clever counting

the gist

In 1964, a year after John F. Kennedy's assassination, mainstream American newspapers printed a list of coincidences linking him to Abraham Lincoln, such as both presidents having a secretary named similar to their successor's name. The list had earlier circulated in a Republican congressional newsletter. Martin Gardner examined it in the 1970s and found that several claims were based on misinformation, and Snopes later found the rest easily explained by chance. A Skeptical Inquirer contest then produced similar lists for other president pairs, such as 13 similarities between Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson.

how it works

With enough possible comparisons, some matches will appear by chance. Lists like this gain power by choosing details selectively, then readers focus on the matches and forget the many non-matches.

so what

It is a classic lesson in why coincidences are weak evidence without a strong comparison group.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · text CC BY-SA 4.0

Illustrative photo · Alexander Gardner, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons