nature & planetEos1970s–2020s · Greenland and Antarctica

We’ve Lost 11 Trillion Metric Tons of Ice Since the 1980s

the gist

Researchers estimate that Greenland and Antarctica have lost about 11 trillion metric tons of ice since the 1970s, enough to raise global sea level by more than 3 centimeters. The assessment combined data from 27 satellite missions spanning more than 50 years. About 84 percent of the loss came from glaciers and ice sheets breaking off or flowing into the ocean, and only 16 percent from melting at the surface. Annual loss rose steeply, with Greenland going from 60 billion tons a year in the 1980s to 264 billion in the 2010s. Sea level rose about 1.4 millimeters a year through most of the twentieth century but over 3.6 millimeters a year between 2006 and 2015.

how it works

Ice sheets lose mass in two ways: melting at the surface, which runs off as water, and glaciers flowing out to the sea, where they break into icebergs. Warmer ocean water melts the edges of glaciers from below, which makes them thin and speeds their flow into the sea. Because most of the loss is this ocean-driven process, the ice loss can accelerate even when surface melting is steady.

so what

Small-looking sea-level rise has large human effects: researchers note that just over 3 centimeters puts another six to nine million people at risk of coastal flooding and erosion. The finding shows that the ocean warming under the ice is the main driver of the long-term trend, which matters for forecasting how fast coasts will change.

Eos (AGU) · CC BY-NC-ND 3.0

Illustrative photo · Hannes Grobe 20:10, 16 December 2007 (UTC), CC BY-SA 2.5, via Wikimedia Commons