historyWikipedia1930s · Oklahoma and California, USA
Moving one item from a low group to a high group can raise the average of both groups
The Will Rogers phenomenon is what happens when you move one observation from one group to another and the averages of both groups rise. Suppose a person slightly below average moves from a higher-scoring group into a lower-scoring one: the lower group's average goes up, and the higher group's average also goes up because the weakest member has left. The overall average stays the same, since it is a weighted mix of the two. The name comes from a joke attributed to the comedian Will Rogers about Dust Bowl migrants from Oklahoma who moved to California, although versions of the joke with other places were in circulation for years before Rogers' name was attached. The effect is a real statistical pattern that appears whenever groups are reclassified.
It is a clear example of how averages can mislead when membership of groups changes. The same pattern appears in serious research, which is why statisticians check group composition before comparing averages.
In cancer medicine, a similar effect is called stage migration: when better scans move some patients into a higher stage, the survival rates of both the lower and higher stage groups can look better, even though treatment has not changed.
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Illustrative photo · Melbourne Spurr, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
