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newsanalysisThe Conversation (Australia)

‘Plenty of reasons for hope’: what 30 years of climate talks have achieved

the gist

After three decades of annual UN climate summits, global emissions are still high and the world is on course to overshoot the 1.5°C warming threshold, so it is fair to ask what the talks have achieved. Their biggest success is the 2015 Paris Agreement, which brought more than 190 countries around shared goals and bent the projected warming curve downward: the trajectory is still dire, but better than it would have been without it. The talks also show that small states can matter: the Marshall Islands helped build the High Ambition Coalition that secured the 1.5°C goal, which Pacific nations call a matter of survival. The 2026 summit, COP31 in Turkey, is led by Australia's climate minister, and one proposal on the table is a '35 by 35' target of meeting 35% of final energy demand with electricity by 2035.

how it works

Each country sets its own national emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement, and the annual summits are where they are compared, pressured and ratcheted up. Coalitions of smaller states can shape the outcome by agreeing a common position early and pushing larger economies toward it.

so what

Climate summits are easy to dismiss because emissions keep rising, but the case made here is that diplomacy sets the direction and pace of change even when it falls short. The talks also face headwinds: the United States withdrew from international climate cooperation in January, though no other country has followed.

fun fact

The Pacific rallying cry at climate talks is '1.5 to stay alive'.