Correlation does not imply causation, and the Latin names for the classic traps are a useful guide

arts, ideas & societyWikipedia

Correlation does not imply causation, and the Latin names for the classic traps are a useful guide

the gist

Two things moving together does not prove that one causes the other. The fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc treats any correlation as causation, while post hoc ergo propter hoc assumes that whatever came first must have caused what followed. A third trap is reverse causation, where the arrow points the wrong way. Some correlations hide a common cause that drives both variables, and others are pure coincidence. Statisticians use tools such as the Granger causality test and the Bradford Hill criteria to weigh causal claims, but they still rest on assumptions.

how it works

A correlation only shows that two variables move together. A causal link needs evidence that rules out a confounder, a reversed arrow or a coincidence, which is why researchers use controlled studies and specialised tests.

so what

Most arguments about health, policy or trends hinge on this distinction, so knowing the traps helps you ask whether a claim has shown cause or just association.

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background

The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship.

This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc ('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc ('after this, therefore because of this'), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one.

From Wikipedia: Correlation does not imply causation (CC BY-SA 4.0) ↗ · text CC BY-SA 4.0

see

Rcragun, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Greglocock, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

brewbooks from near Seattle, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Adapted from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia · CC BY-SA 4.0

Illustrative photo · Rcragun, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

source: Wikipedia ↗

politics

Trump and Netanyahu reportedly clash over whether to resume military action against Iran

the gist

Israeli reports also say the cabinet directed the military to prepare for a possible new attack on Iran.

so what

The United States and Israel have been closely aligned on Iran's nuclear programme and regional threats, so open disagreement between their leaders over military strategy is unusual and closely watched. Whether to resume strikes is a decision with consequences for shipping, oil markets and the wider Middle East.

fun fact

Benjamin Netanyahu has served as Prime Minister of Israel for more years in total than any other person.

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Data: GDELT Project

Illustrative photo · Israel Belkind and Fanny Abramovitch (original) “The Provis…, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

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supplementary video · Epimetheus on YouTube ↗

world cultures & travelWikivoyageclassic9th–15th century · Siem Reap, Cambodia

Angkor was the largest pre-industrial city on Earth, covering about 3,000 square kilometres

the gist

Angkor, near Siem Reap in northern Cambodia, was the capital of the Khmer Empire, which ruled much of mainland Southeast Asia between roughly the 9th and 15th centuries. At its height the city spread across about 3,000 square kilometres, making it the largest pre-industrial city on Earth by area. Its growth depended on water: huge reservoirs called barays, along with canals and embankments, stored monsoon rain and carried it to rice fields. That system let farmers harvest more than once a year and fed a very large population through the dry season. The temple complex of Angkor Wat, built in the early 12th century, is the best-known monument and still stands at the heart of the park.

how it works

The Khmer kings built enormous rectangular reservoirs that caught monsoon rain during the wet season. Earthen dykes and canals moved that water into rice paddies, so farmers could grow crops across much of the year. The surplus food supported craftsmen, builders and the workforce that raised the temples.

so what

Angkor shows how a society without industrial machinery could build a city on a scale that rivals modern metropolises, using engineering and water management instead. Some historians link its decline to drought, flooding and shifts in its water systems, which makes it a long-running case study in how cities depend on managing water. The site is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and one of the most important archaeological landscapes in Southeast Asia.

fun fact

The outline of Angkor Wat appears on the national flag of Cambodia.