nature & planetanalysisThe Conversation (UK)

States like Samoa face brutal 2027 storm season – every dollar of ‘climate cash’ counts for small islands

the gist

A strong El Niño is set to overlap with the 2026-27 South Pacific cyclone season, putting small island nations such as Samoa under heavy pressure. In Samoa 70% of the population and infrastructure sit in low-lying coastal areas, and sea level has risen by as much as 31cm over three decades, raising the risk of flooding, stronger cyclones and saltwater damage to crops. El Niño can also drop sea levels temporarily, exposing shallow reefs and killing coral. Samoa is one of 39 small island developing states, which together hold under 1% of the world's people but need climate funding that often arrives slowly, tangled in red tape.

how it works

El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern Pacific that shifts rainfall and storm patterns. For islands it can mean drought and water shortages in some places, and more intense cyclones in others, layered on top of slow sea-level rise from climate change.

so what

These nations emit almost nothing yet face some of the worst effects, and they steward vast ocean territories. Together they make up 38 of 193 UN member states, around 20% of votes, and have long pushed for tougher climate goals such as the 1.5°C limit.

the bigger pattern

Small island states have repeatedly shaped global climate talks well beyond their size, including pushing for the 1.5°C target. Past El Niño years, such as the 1980s ones Samoans still remember, brought drought and fire, showing these shocks recur.

fun fact

Samoa skipped a whole day, 30 December 2011, when it moved west of the International Date Line to align its calendar with Australia and New Zealand.

The Conversation

Illustrative photo · Rebecca Lindsey, NOAA Climate.gov, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons