politicsanalysisThe Conversation (UK)

US parties splurged on the midterms – but research shows the link between spending and success is weak

the gist

The 2026 US midterms set a record for spending in a congressional election: the two parties spent an estimated $12 billion, according to OpenSecrets, a 26% rise on congressional spending in 2024. The Democrats accounted for about 46% of it and the Republicans 43%, with independents making up the rest. Republican money leans on very large donors, while Democratic money relies more on many small gifts. Elon Musk was reported to be the largest donor of the cycle, giving almost $450 million to Republican candidates. For comparison, the entire UK 2024 general election cost £94.5 million. Yet researchers broadly agree that spending has a weak effect on who wins.

so what

Money buys name recognition and ads, but voters' party loyalty, the economy and the national mood tend to count for more. Spending can matter most in low-profile races where voters know little, and it is often channelled to candidates already likely to win, which makes its effect look bigger than it is.

has this happened before?

Studies of US elections have repeatedly found that incumbents attract most donations and win most of the time, so money follows success as much as it causes it. High-spending campaigns that lost, such as several self-funded billionaire runs, are a recurring illustration.

more on this

background

The financing of electoral campaigns in the United States happens at the federal, state, and local levels by contributions from individuals, corporations, political action committees, and sometimes the government. Campaign spending has risen steadily at least since 1990. For example, a candidate who won an election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1990 spent on average $407,600 ($1 million in 2025) while the winner in 2022 spent on average $2.79 million ($3.07 million in 2025); in the Senate, average spending for winning candidates went from $3.87 million ($9.54 million in 2025) to $26.53 million ($29.19 million in 2025).

In 2020, nearly $14 billion was spent on federal election campaigns in the United States, "making it the most expensive campaign in U.S. history", "more than double" what was spent in the 2016 election.

From Wikipedia: Campaign finance in the United States (CC BY-SA 4.0) ↗ · text CC BY-SA 4.0

The Conversation

Illustrative photo · Jennifer Cheng / Sunlight Foundation, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons