historyanalysisThe Conversation (UK)1960 · Illinois, USA
Why the doomsday prediction of 1960 matters today
In 1960 Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues at the University of Illinois published a paper in Science calculating that the world would end on Friday 13 November 2026, which would have been his 115th birthday. Population, they said, would grow ever faster until it became infinite and people were 'squeezed to death'. The result was baked in: the equation was built to blow up at a finite date, then fitted to two thousand years of population data to name a precise day. The paper was a joke with a point, arguing that population growth was unsustainable, and its proposed fix was birth control on a massive scale.
A normal growth curve rises steadily. Von Foerster chose a hyperbolic equation where growth accelerates in proportion to size, so it heads towards infinity at a set time. The date is simply where the fitted curve goes vertical, so the model's structure decided the answer before any data went in.
Similar fears followed: Paul Ehrlich's 1968 The Population Bomb and the 1972 Limits to Growth model. They proved wildly wrong, yet agencies pushed birth control, sometimes as a condition for food aid, and forced sterilisation schemes appeared in South Asia. The under-15 population peaked in 2021, and Japan, Hungary, Turkey and China now try to raise birth rates.
Confident worst-case forecasts have a long record: Malthus in the 1790s, the 1960s population bomb and many later ones. Models can only return outcomes their structure allows, so the assumptions matter more than the precision of the date.
Heinz von Foerster was a pioneer of second-order cybernetics, the study of systems that include their own observers.
background
Heinz von Foerster (né von Förster; November 13, 1911 – October 2, 2002) was an Austrian-American scientist combining physics and philosophy, and widely attributed as the originator of second-order cybernetics. He was twice a Guggenheim fellow (1956–57 and 1963–64) and also was a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1980. He is well known for his 1960 Doomsday equation formula published in Science predicting future population growth.
From Wikipedia: Heinz von Foerster (CC BY-SA 4.0) ↗ · text CC BY-SA 4.0see
key facts
- Born
- 13 November 1911
- Died
- 2 October 2002
- Known as
- mathematician, physicist
Facts: Wikidata (CC0)
The Conversation
Illustrative photo · U of I publicity department, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
