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Japan now has about two deaths for every birth, a ratio that has reversed in forty years

the gist

Forty years ago Japan had about two births for every death. Twenty years ago the two numbers were roughly equal. Today the ratio has reversed, with about two deaths for every birth. Japan's population is ageing quickly because people live longer and fewer children are being born, with women having an average of well under two children. The country has been shrinking since its population peaked in the late 2000s, and it is one of the clearest examples of rapid population decline in a large economy.

how it works

When fewer babies are born and more people reach old age, the balance of births and deaths shifts. Lower birth rates mean fewer young adults enter the workforce each year, while the older population grows. Over time this makes the total population fall unless immigration rises.

so what

Japan is a preview for other ageing societies, showing the pressure on pensions, health care and the labour force as the working-age population shrinks. Its responses, from immigration debates to automation, are being watched closely around the world.

fun fact

Japan's population peaked around 2008 and has been declining since.

Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0

Image: Our World in Data, CC BY 4.0